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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1595

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, October 25, 2018 07:57:17
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250757
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250756
    LAZ000-251000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1595
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0256 AM CDT Thu Oct 25 2018

    Areas affected...coastal Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 250756Z - 251000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal risk for locally strong wind gusts and perhaps
    a brief tornado will exist next few hours over a portion of coastal
    Louisiana. However the threat is expected to remain too limited for
    a WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms continues developing over the
    northwest Gulf within a low-level warm advection regime and in
    association with ascent attending a vorticity maximum embedded
    within the base of a progressive shortwave trough. A warm front
    persists in vicinity of the LA coast, and this boundary may move a
    little farther inland this morning. The largest 0-1 km hodographs
    remain just north of this front where the surface layer is more
    stable. While general trend has been for storms to become less
    organized as they approach the coast due to limited buoyancy, some
    updraft rotation continues to be observed offshore, and there is
    some concern that a couple of storms could pose at least a marginal
    risk for a brief tornado as they interact with the warm front. Due
    to the very limited inland extent and marginal nature of the threat,
    a WW is not anticipated.

    ..Dial/Hart.. 10/25/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 29849234 29739161 29619083 29579000 29458932 29058942
    29069080 29359175 29429223 29449265 29599302 29809295
    29849234



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