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ACUS11 KWNS 092322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092322
ARZ000-MOZ000-100045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1554
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central Arkansas into Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 403...

Valid 092322Z - 100045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 403 continues.

SUMMARY...Some potential for a brief tornado or two will linger
across central Arkansas into the Ozarks this evening. A watch does
not seem likely, but an uptick in cell organization would increase
the probability of one.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a north-south squall line extending across
much of Arkansas, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop within a warm advection regime along the tail of a low-level
jet. Combined with very moist low levels, recent LZK VWP data show
sufficient 0-1km shear for transient circulations either within
individual cells or in the broader line. With the primary shortwave
trough and core of the low-level jet lifting farther away from the
region though, the local environment is not expected to become any
more supportive of tornadoes, such that a new watch seems unlikely.
However, radar trends are being monitored for an increase in
organization.

..Picca.. 10/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 33489349 35449383 36639340 36719208 36089166 34649151
33679201 33359296 33489349



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