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ACUS11 KWNS 092006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092006
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-092130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1552
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...western Missouri and northwestern
Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 403...404...

Valid 092006Z - 092130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 403, 404 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the region may pose a risk
for tornadoes and localized strong wind gusts through 6-7 PM CDT

DISCUSSION...The slowly deepening surface low center appears in the
process of developing to the east/northeast of Salina KS, and likely
to continue northeastward toward the Falls City NE area through
23-00Z. Large clockwise curved low-level hodographs are focused
within the warm sector in close proximity to the low, and along/to
the immediate east of the arcing convective band now advancing into
the Kansas City metro area.

A number of cells within the convective band, as well as along a
remnant convective boundary extending northeastward (roughly along
the Interstate 35 corridor) are slowly organizing and intensifying
in the presence of high boundary layer moisture content (surface dew
points now near 70f) and weak to modest CAPE (up to 1000 J/kg).
This environment appears conducive to occasional continuing
development of low-level mesocyclones, accompanied by a risk for
tornadoes and/or locally damaging wind gusts, and will gradually
shift northeast of the Kansas City area toward the Missouri/Iowa
border area through early evening.

..Kerr.. 10/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 40739347 40489299 40109259 38639401 37829350 37169349
37469440 38229510 38959583 39549525 40489442 40739347



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