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ACUS11 KWNS 091945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091945
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-092145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Areas affected...Far east Iowa...far northwest Illinois...southern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 091945Z - 092145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado
may accompany the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not expected at
this time.

DISCUSSION...Isolated, small, relatively discrete storms have
developed just south of a differential heating zone within the last
1-2 hours, where temperatures have climbed into the 80s. A few of
these storms have exhibited occasional low-level rotation (as was
the case recently in Dubuque County, Iowa).

With mid 60s dewpoints and modest lapse rates in place, up to 1000
J/kg MLCAPE has recently been realized across the discussion area.
Still, buoyancy is rather modest, as is deep-layer shear, with 35
knots of effective bulk shear noted. Deep layer ascent and stronger
low-level shear are currently located well upstream of the region
and are not expected to arrive until later this afternoon/early
evening. As such, in the short term, a few of the stronger cells may
become organized, perhaps with brief periods of moderate to strong
low-level rotation. A few marginally severe wind gusts may occur and
a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

Given the isolated and marginal extend of the short term severe
threat, a WW issuance is not expected at this time, though
convective trends will be monitored for any increase in threat.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 41199101 41759131 42329121 42929091 43369038 43738920
43838809 43318780 42548793 41968828 41458941 41278991
41199101



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