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ACUS11 KWNS 091800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091759
IAZ000-MOZ000-092030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Areas affected...North central Missouri...central/eastern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 091759Z - 092030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase
throughout the afternoon. A tornado/wind threat will be the primary
concern. A tornado watch issuance is likely within the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...Modest clearing (and associated insolation) has been
underway across the discussion area for the last few hours and is
expected to continue through the rest of the day. As such,
temperatures are expected to continue rising through the 70s to near
80F, with a deep, very moist boundary layer present. Though
mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep (i.e 5.5-6.0 C/km),
the heated, warm/moist low-level airmass will likely result in 1000+
J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating.

While buoyancy will be modest, an impressive kinematic field will be
in place, with 40+ knots of effective bulk shear and a strong
low-level wind field present, owing to a diurnal, dynamically forced
low-level jet traversing the area. Though deep-layer flow will be
mainly unidirectional in nature, surface winds are expected to
remain backed, particularly for regions in Iowa, which will be
closely located to the surface low track. DMX WSR-88D VWP indicates
that nearly 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH is already in place, with over 300
m2/s2 noted by EAX VWP, where the core of the low-level jet is
located. As the core of the low-level jet shifts northward and as
stronger large scale ascent approaches, multiple strong to severe
storms, including supercells, are expected to develop. Damaging wind
gusts will be possible with any storm that can become organized.
Given the strong deep and low-level shear in place, the more
dominant, longer-lived and discrete storms will have the potential
to produce a few tornadoes.

A tornado watch will likely be required in the next few hours.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 40009280 39949335 40339391 40999385 41739325 42079302
42319242 42709175 42429139 41629114 40939143 40229173
40059237 40009280



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