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ACUS11 KWNS 091409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091409
ARZ000-TXZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-091615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1547
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0909 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Eastern Oklahoma and parts of
southeastern Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 402...

Valid 091409Z - 091615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 402 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for sporadic damaging wind gusts and perhaps an
isolated tornado or two may continue through at least early
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing narrow pre-frontal squall line appears
predominantly supported by forcing associated with a mid-level
impulse pivoting across the south central/central High Plains. This
is embedded within larger-scale troughing which is forecast to
gradually shift northeast of the southern Rockies through mid to
late afternoon.

Models suggest that these developments may be accompanied by at
least some further deepening of a surface frontal low across north
central Oklahoma through eastern Kansas. However, little
appreciable further strengthening of southerly warm sector 850 mb
flow is forecast, with strongest speeds generally in close proximity
to the wave. Most guidance indicates the strength of these winds
are and will remain somewhat modest on the order of 30-40 kt, but
VWP data suggest flow may be currently stronger (up to 50 kt) across
central Oklahoma.

Thermodynamic profiles are generally characterized by weak lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, but seasonably high moisture content in
low-levels, is contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg.
While the risk for hail appears low to negligible, the sizable
low-level hodographs and high boundary layer moisture content
probably will remain favorable for occasional low-level mesocyclone
development accompanied by a risk for tornadoes and/or sporadic
damaging surface gusts.

..Kerr/Grams.. 10/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 37519647 37569492 36439454 35059447 33279478 32959635
34389625 35789688 36359728 36819742 37519647



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