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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1546

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, October 09, 2018 10:53:17
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091053
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091052
    TXZ000-091145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1546
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0552 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

    Areas affected...central and north-central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 091052Z - 091145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Additional supercell development ahead of the convective
    line is possible this morning. A risk for a tornado is seemingly
    increasing. If supercell rotation persists/intensifies and/or other
    storms acquire rotation, a watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KGRK shows a supercell in Lampasas
    County and this storm quickly developed from weak convection in the
    warm sector to the east of the convective line. As the negatively
    tilted mid-level shortwave trough over the southern High Plains
    continues northeastward into northwest TX this morning, favorable
    large-scale ascent will tease central and north-central TX and
    perhaps aid in additional discrete storm development. The KGRK and
    KFWS VAD show veering and strengthening low-level winds increasing
    with height in the lowest few km. The very moist low levels coupled
    with adequate hodographs will conditionally support supercell
    mesocyclones and possibly a risk for a weak tornado or two this morning---mainly west of I-35 and south of I-20---before convective
    outflow nullifies the risk from west to east.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 10/09/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30729925 32039831 32519778 32499722 32129707 31369744
    30859829 30729925



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