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ACUS11 KWNS 051927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051927
WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-052100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sat May 05 2018

Areas affected...Eastern TN to Southern WV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051927Z - 052100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms are expected from portions of eastern
TN to southern WV. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. Low
severe probabilities will be added to 20z outlook to account for
these threats.

DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer heating has
developed from eastern TN into southeast KY. Surface temperatures
have warmed into the mid 70s across this region ahead of a very
moist plume characterized by scattered convection and an extensive
rain shield. Within this moist plume there appears to be a weak
embedded MCV over Middle TN that is tracking slowly northeast. This
feature may be partly responsible for recent increase in convection
immediately downstream in the Putnam/White County TN region. While
buoyancy is not particularly strong there appears to be sufficient
instability, given the observed shear, for robust updrafts through
the late afternoon hours. Marginally severe hail and gusty winds are
the primary threats.

..Darrow/Grams.. 05/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 36538537 38388193 38058069 37198100 36068272 35528469
36538537



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ACUS11 KWNS 150444
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150444
PAZ000-150545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Montour Northumberland...and Columbia counties in
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...

Valid 150444Z - 150545Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69 continues.

SUMMARY...A supercell embedded in the squall line may lead to an
increased wind damage and tornado threat over the next hour.

DISCUSSION...A supercell embedded within the squall line is entering Northumberland county at 0440Z. This embedded supercell may locally
enhance the wind damage threat over the next hour. In addition,
given the vorticity rich environment, there will be a somewhat
enhanced tornado threat.

..Bentley.. 04/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...

LAT...LON 40977708 41097673 41047637 40917627 40797642 40707671
40667695 40727716 40827721 40977708



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