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ACUS11 KWNS 090155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090155
TXZ000-090330-
Mesoscale Discussion 1544
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018
Areas affected...Portions of west Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400...
Valid 090155Z - 090330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400
continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for isolated large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado continues this evening.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage across the
Texas Big Bend in response to the arrival of a mid/upper speed max
at the base of the larger-scale trough. Ongoing storms have shown
various modes of evolution, including a pair of counter-rotating
mesocyclones over Terrell Co. The 00Z DRT sounding suggests robust
right and left splits may remain possible, given low-level veering
with height but also unidirectional shear above 700mb.
Although lapse rates were unimpressive in the DRT sounding,
favorable effective shear and a moist boundary layer should maintain
some hail threat with more discrete convection. Furthermore,
strengthening 700mb flow towards midnight should enhance clockwise
curvature in area hodographs, which would be favorable for a tornado
or two.
..Picca.. 10/09/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29690028 29410055 29410100 29670166 29710227 29870316
30080347 30630344 31160263 31460156 31400055 30830013
29690028
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