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ACUS11 KWNS 090004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090003
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-090100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Areas affected...northern MO into central IA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 399...

Valid 090003Z - 090100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 399 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat may persist for another couple of hours before
boundary layer stabilization limits potential.

DISCUSSION...The tornado threat may persist briefly this evening
north of original WW 399. After collaboration with NWS DMX, a small
northward expansion of the watch area has been made.

Latest radar observations continue to show rotation in semi-discrete convection. Low level flow ahead of the sagging surface front/trough
remains backed, resulting in 150-300 m2/s2 effective SRH. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s as far north as roughly I-80, conditions
remain favorable for brief tornado development. However, the loss of
daytime heating and boundary layer stabilization will ultimately
limit the threat in time/space.

..Leitman.. 10/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 40499466 40979460 41879407 42109366 42159327 42079307
41779278 40929275 40519288 39899343 39599374 39519424
39579499 40499466



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