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ACUS11 KWNS 082158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082157
TXZ000-082330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1542
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Edwards Plateau to west Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 082157Z - 082330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms, capable of large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, will likely
necessitate watch issuance across the region this evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar data depict scattered thunderstorms
gradually intensifying within a warm/moist sector ahead of an
outflow boundary and a lee trough. Within this regime, dew points in
the upper 60s/lower 70s and modest mid-level lapse rates are
yielding MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg. Persistent meridional
mid/upper flow is promoting somewhat disorganized wind profiles
above 850-700mb, evidenced by recent KSJT VWP data. Still, robust
flow above 500mb and low-level veering with height are likely
adequate for occasional supercell structures capable of large hail
and damaging winds. The tornado threat may increase later this
evening, as flow strengthens within the 850-700mb layer and
effective helicity increases considerably. Moreover, water-vapor
imagery shows amplifying large-scale ascent advancing over far west
Texas, and this should aid further development by late evening.

Greater coverage of strong/severe storms this evening should
eventually require watch issuance. While a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
appears more appropriate for the current threat, the evolving
kinematic environment later this evening may require a Tornado
Watch, and such details will be collaborated with affected offices.

..Picca/Thompson.. 10/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29770332 30160342 30810353 31500266 32040195 32040146
31960105 31650085 30180058 29570058 29420087 29600117
29810199 29780276 29770332



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