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ACUS11 KWNS 081849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081849
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-082045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1541
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Areas affected...Parts of south central through northeast Kansas and
adjacent southeast Nebraska/northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 081849Z - 082045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue
developing across the region through 4-5 PM CDT, perhaps accompanied
by some risk for a tornado or two, or localized damaging wind gusts.
This threat currently appears low enough that a watch probably is
not necessary, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...The bulk of the ongoing convective development appears
largely supported by forcing for ascent due to low/mid-level warm
advection, to the cool side of a convectively generated pre-frontal
surface boundary. This boundary generally extends along or just
south of the Interstate 35 corridor of eastern Kansas, southwestward
into northwestern Oklahoma.

However, along and ahead of the leading edge of the more widespread
rain, insolation appears to be contributing to a corridor of
boundary layer destabilization (CAPE increasing up to 1000 J/kg.
This may support increasing/intensifying thunderstorm activity
during the next few hours, as far north as a weak low on the front,
now northwest of Fort Riley.

Through 21-22Z, models suggest that this low/frontal wave may slowly
migrate northeastward into southeastern Nebraska. Near and in close
proximity to the southeast of this feature, beneath 30-40 kt south/southwesterly 850 mb flow, southeasterly near surface winds
likely will maintain sizable low-level hodographs. With further
boundary layer warming and moistening, it appears possible that the
environment may become marginally conducive to the development of
occasional low-level mesocyclones, accompanied by at least some risk
for a relatively short-lived tornado or two, in additional to
localized straight-line wind gusts.

..Kerr/Grams.. 10/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38959683 39659670 40109623 40519499 39799451 38839523
37869646 37999693 38959683



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