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ACUS11 KWNS 081725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081725
TXZ000-081930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Areas affected...Portions of west Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 081725Z - 081930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage expected to slowly increase over the
next few hours. A few instances of damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail will be the primary threats. A WW is not
expected in the near term.

DISCUSSION...Insolation has led to surface temperatures warming into
the 70s, beneath an uncapped airmass, with near saturated conditions
noted in the sfc-800 mb layer. As such, convective temperatures have
been reached across portions of the discussion area, and stronger
storms have initiated, including Ector and Midland Counties in TX,
where a 60 mph wind gust was recently estimated in Odessa. Continued
heating should result in further destabilization, with MLCAPE
reaching up to 1500 J/kg. Simultaneously, deep-layer ascent
associated with a mid-level vort max pivoting around the trough axis
to the west will continue to overspread the discussion area
throughout the afternoon. The net result will be a gradual increase
in convective coverage/intensity.

While the strongest forcing for ascent, and resultant peak in storm coverage/severe potential are not expected to arrive for several
more hours, at least isolated convection may pose a risk for
marginal severe in the short term. Nearly unidirectional meridional
flow and deep-layer shear are present across the discussion area.
Given the aforementioned expected buoyancy, a few storms may become
organized, with wet downbursts and subsequent damaging wind gusts
accompanying the stronger storms. With modest (i.e 6-6.5 C/km) lapse
rates in place roughly within the sfc-500 mb layer, a few 1+ inch
hailstones will also be possible.

A WW issuance in the near term is not expected given the anticipated
sparse, marginally severe nature of the early-mid afternoon storms,
but trends will continued to be monitored for a possible WW later
today.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 30980296 32510263 33220227 33620146 33210062 33130050
31940051 30770119 30460208 30980296



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