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ACUS11 KWNS 150220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150220
TXZ000-150345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1583
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central and east TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...

Valid 150220Z - 150345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415
continues.

SUMMARY...Mainly an isolated large hail threat should continue
across remaining valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415 for
the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Strong effective bulk shear of 50-60 kt noted in the
00Z soundings from Fort Worth, TX and Shreveport, LA has supported a
couple of supercell thunderstorms over the past several hours across
portions of central and east TX. As a sharp cold front continues
southward over this region and diurnal cooling occurs, these
thunderstorms will likely become elevated and gradually weaken. In
the short term (next couple of hours), mainly an isolated large hail
threat should persist given the adequate instability and strong
shear observed. A strong wind gust may also occur with any
thunderstorm that can remain near surface based in close proximity
to the front.

..Gleason.. 10/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 31829684 32339680 33049507 33049463 32339463 31789651
31829684



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