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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1581

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, October 14, 2018 20:55:47
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142055
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142055
    TXZ000-142330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1581
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of Concho Valley and Big Country

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 142055Z - 142330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop within the warm
    sector ahead of a surging cold front, and the main threat is
    isolated severe hail.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have developed north of San
    Angelo within the warm sector. There is enough instability (MLCAPE
    ~1500 J/kg) and mid/upper speed shear (effective bulk values of
    50-60 knots) to support severe hail with the strongest storms.
    However, a surging cold front will undercut storms in the next hour,
    which will act to limit the severe potential of storms in the area.
    Cu are beginning to develop farther east and south/west within the
    storm sector that may have more time to develop/organize before the
    cold front undercuts development. Even as the cold front pushes
    through, enough elevated instability will exist and strong/severe
    organized storms could still produce severe hail. Strong wind gusts
    are also possible, but the overall severe threat should remain below
    the threshold for a watch issuance.

    ..Nauslar/Grams.. 10/14/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31880038 32159969 32409906 32479838 32269810 32049805
    31739812 31269866 31119917 31010012 31040070 31010120
    31050134 31300107 31540076 31880038



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