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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1578

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, October 13, 2018 23:41:42
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132341
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132341
    LAZ000-TXZ000-ARZ000-140115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1578
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0641 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast TX and northeast LA

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 414...

    Valid 132341Z - 140115Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 414 continues.

    SUMMARY...Local spatial extension has been made for WW 414 into
    extreme northwest Louisiana, with a continued tornado threat across
    the remaining portion of the watch.

    DISCUSSION...Early evening surface analyses indicated an area of low
    pressure in northeast TX (located near TYR at 23Z) with a warm front
    extending east through northern LA to central MS. The horizontal
    thermal gradient of this warm front in northwest LA as tightened in
    the last 1-1.5 hours as precipitation and clouds have resulted in
    cooling surface temperatures in and around SHV. South of the cloud
    shield and warm front, temperatures are in the lower 80s F, while
    the reading at 23Z at SHV was 69 F. The thermodynamic environment
    is more stable with eastward extent across LA. Given the time of
    day with the loss of daytime heating and clouds/precipitation
    spreading across northern LA, the potential for further extension of
    this watch is unlikely.

    Although these same factors hinder the ongoing thermodynamic profile
    across northwest LA with the presence of cloudiness and some
    precipitation, low-level environment remains supportive for
    rotation/tornado threat near the warm front, given the presence of
    strong vertically veering winds.

    ..Peters/Guyer.. 10/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 33029397 32999349 32239332 32019315 31789381 31149410
    31099480 30909524 30839620 30969618 31119580 31559563
    31679525 31819529 31869473 32319479 32679444 32749406
    33029397



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