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ACUS11 KWNS 131605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131604
TXZ000-131800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1575
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Areas affected...central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 412...413...

Valid 131604Z - 131800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 412, 413 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk -- and the potential for a couple of tornadoes
-- continues across portions of central Texas, within WW 412 and
413.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows several fairly
intense/supercell storms in a cluster extending from the Concho
Valley to the Hill Country, with a few of the storms exhibiting
persistent, but rather weak, low-level rotation. The storms are
occurring within a warm sector bounded by a cold front that extends
from a low near BWD (Brownwood TX) to the Rio Grande just west of
DRT (Del Rio), and a warm front which arcs from the low eastward and
then southeastward across central and eastern Texas.

As the system -- which is comprised of the remnants of tropical
system Sergio -- continues to shift east-northeastward across north
Texas toward southeast Oklahoma, low-level flow to the south, i.e.
within the warm sector, will continue to gradually veer with time.
While this will yield a slow decrease in 0-1km shear on the
meso-alpha scale, enhanced shear in more localized meso-beta-scale
zones -- including near the low and warm front, and near smaller
storm-scale boundaries -- will persist. As such, potential for a
couple of tornadoes remains evident, while locally damaging winds
and perhaps hail with a few of the strongest updrafts will also be
possible.

While storms continue to move eastward out of WW 412 into WW 413,
storms just ahead of the slowly advancing cold front are not
expected to have fully cleared WW 412 by its scheduled 17Z
expiration. Therefore, local extensions in time for some of the WW
412 counties may be required.

..Goss.. 10/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30700007 31000040 32049904 32529827 32709683 32679620
32159580 31739560 31199587 30509696 30569890 30700007



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