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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1573

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, October 13, 2018 06:41:36
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 130641
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130640
    TXZ000-130745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1573
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0140 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of west/central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410...

    Valid 130640Z - 130745Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms may organize into a small cluster
    that accelerates east towards central Texas early this morning, and
    downstream watch issuance is probable within the next hour.

    DISCUSSION...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing across
    west Texas near/south of a warm front, where more favorable
    surface-based buoyancy is yielding a greater severe threat. Initial
    discrete cells over eastern Pecos/Terrell Cos have remained sparse,
    perhaps due to outpacing stronger large-scale ascent associated with
    the primary shortwave trough. However, regional radar data have
    shown increasing activity (likely aided by the aforementioned
    ascent) between Pecos and Fort Stockton. The front may serve as a
    focus for eastward propagation/acceleration across the Concho
    Valley. In turn, there is some potential for cells to grow upscale
    into a small bowing cluster with an accompanying threat of damaging
    winds. Additionally, a modest increase in warm advection within the
    0-2km AGL layer could further support isolated supercells (capable
    of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado) ahead of this
    cluster. A downstream watch is probable within the next hour.

    ..Picca.. 10/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30219981 30240120 30380291 30550344 31050346 31730328
    32020227 32040219 31750023 31259885 30969864 30479858
    30259868 30219907 30219981



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