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ACUS11 KWNS 121944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121944
TXZ000-122145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Areas affected...portions of far West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121944Z - 122145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong/locally severe storms could evolve this
afternoon near the higher terrain of west Texas. WW issuance is not anticipated for this potential/initial risk.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicated TCU
development over the higher terrain of far West Texas -- i.e.
portions of Jeff Davis, Brewster, and Pecos Counties, where clearing
of the cloud cover has allowed differential heating to occur over
the higher terrain. With modest (low 60s) dewpoints indicated
across this region, the heating has contributed to gradual
destabilization (surface-based CAPE values in the 500 to 1500 J/kg
range per latest objective analyses).

The cu field remains suppressed away from the high terrain,
indicative of modest larger-scale ascent at best. Even over the
higher terrain, TCU continue to shed any glaciated tops, again
suggestive of a larger-scale environment not yet supportive of
robust deep updrafts.

With time, continued heating and the gradual approach of Sergio from
the west may support isolated CB development over the mountains
through diurnal peak heating. With moderately strong
west-southwesterly mid-level flow, updraft organization -- and
possible, attendant risk for hail -- could occur locally. This risk
however should remain isolated at best into the evening hours.

Later this evening, as Sergio continues to approach, more
substantial convective development/coverage is expected, which could
result in the need for WW issuance consideration at that time.

..Goss/Grams.. 10/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30640426 31030401 31340319 31260272 31220254 30950208
30530199 29960268 29370339 29890403 30640426



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