235
WTNT44 KNHC 120848
TCDAT4Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018Satellite imagery and surface observations
indicate
that Michael has
become a storm-force extratropical low as it moves off of the coast
of the United States. The initial intensity has been increased to
55 kt based on the surface observations, and some additional
increase in strength is expected during the next 12-24 h. After
that time, the cyclone should gradually weaken, and it is forecast
to dissipate over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h. The revised
intensity and size forecast are based mainly on the guidance from
the Ocean Prediction Center.The initial motion is 065/25. The cyclone
should
move very rapidly
toward the east-northeast, followed by a more eastward motion near
the end of the cyclone's life.This is the last public advisory issued by
the
National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United
States can be found in products issued by local National Weather
Service forecast offices.Key Messages:1. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding this morning from
eastern New Jersey to southern New England. Elsewhere high water,
flooding, and flash flooding may persist today where heavy rain fell
very recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.2. Gale-force winds
will
continue for a few more hours over
portions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and
the Delmarva Peninsula.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 12/0900Z 38.0N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 12/1800Z 40.4N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 13/0600Z 43.8N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/1800Z 46.2N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0600Z 47.0N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/0600Z 46.0N 11.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED$$
Forecaster Beven
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