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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0359

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 05, 2018 00:50:42
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 050050
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050050
    MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-050215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0359
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0750 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern NY and PA into portions of New England

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 77...

    Valid 050050Z - 050215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 77
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts expected to continue for the next hour
    or two along the squall line. Greatest risk will be in northern
    portions of the watch area.

    DISCUSSION...Instability is waning across the watch area with the
    loss of daytime heating. However, the squall line has been able to
    maintain intensity in east-central New York where an axis of higher
    dewpoints exists. This area of the line could persist through the
    eastern edge of the watch due to a corridor of mid 60s dewpoints
    along the southern border of VT and NH into northern MA. Further
    south in PA, storm development along the squall line has been
    stunted by a lack of instability. Boundary-layer mixing has lowered
    dewpoints into the mid 50s with 00Z CAPE analysis less than 100 J/kg
    in southern NY and northern PA. Given the lack of any additional
    destabilizing mechanism, do not expect much additional storm
    development south of Scranton, PA.

    ..Bentley.. 05/05/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

    LAT...LON 40597691 40707734 40847736 41067713 42887523 43047476
    43597233 43617184 43567173 43297125 43277123 42747125
    41597241 40597691 40597691



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 15, 2019 04:08:01
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1555301286-1972-10894
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    ACUS11 KWNS 150407
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150407
    VAZ000-NCZ000-150600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0359
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1107 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

    Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and northern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 150407Z - 150600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity is
    expected. A tornado watch is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Numerous showers have developed in central North
    Carolina within the last hour on the western edge of a higher
    theta-e airmass in eastern North Carolina and Virginia. These 70+
    degree dewpoints are expected to continue to advect northwestward
    which will aid in destabilization across the area as temperatures
    cool aloft. The updrafts currently lack deep growth amid strong
    shear, but are expected to slowly deepen and eventually reach severe
    strength in the next 1 to 2 hours as the instability increases and
    the low-level jet strengthens (~70 knots per RAX VWP). Effective
    shear in excess of 60 knots will support supercell storm mode with a
    risk for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Directional shear is
    not all that strong, but 0 to 1 km speed shear in excess of 50 knots
    may support some low-level mesocyclone organization.

    ..Bentley.. 04/15/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37537846 37927813 38157770 38257709 38157666 37957611
    37397601 36817646 36317721 35957776 35727808 35787831
    36137850 36927859 37537846



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