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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1568

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, October 11, 2018 22:17:29
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112217
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112216
    MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-112345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1568
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0516 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

    Areas affected...northeast North Carolinas...southeast Virginia and
    southern Maryland

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 409...

    Valid 112216Z - 112345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 409 continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest threat for isolated tornadoes is expected to
    persist through early evening across southeast Virginia into far
    northeast North Carolina. The tornado threat may increase as far
    north as southern Maryland, where a local extension of WW 409 might
    be needed.

    DISCUSSION...The primary threat for isolated tornadoes should
    persist through early evening with a couple of outer bands located
    over southeast Virginia, northeast of the center of Michael.
    Discrete elements continue to be observed within the bands including
    supercell structures. VWP data from Wakefield indicate large, 0-1 km
    hodographs where surface winds remain backed to easterly. The
    low-level jet accompanying Michael will shift east, northeast
    through eastern VA next couple hours resulting in an increase in
    low-level shear as far north as southern MD where the threat for
    isolated tornadoes may increase through early evening. However, the
    remaining threat appears limited in area north of the current WW, so
    rather than a new WW issuance, best course of action may be to
    locally extend WW 409 into southern MD as needed.

    ..Dial.. 10/11/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...

    LAT...LON 37967530 38097604 38567622 38547558 38317514 37967530



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