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ACUS11 KWNS 050023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050023
PAZ000-WVZ000-050130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

Areas affected...Southwest to central PA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75...

Valid 050023Z - 050130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe-weather threat will continue to diminish from
southwest to central Pennsylvania this evening, with
severe-thunderstorm watch #75 being able to expire at or before 9 PM
EDT.

DISCUSSION...At 0010Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a band of
convection extending from northeast to southwest PA, while VWP data
in western and central PA indicated strong westerly low-level winds
(40-50 kt at 1 km above ground level). The likelihood of these
stronger winds of reaching the surface with any remaining convection
will continue to wane, given the presence of weak convergence and a
stable environment across much of PA.

..Peters.. 05/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 39908052 40667848 41557695 41947614 40967619 40647700
40617750 40407825 39967874 39757885 39748037 39908052



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ACUS11 KWNS 150357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150356
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-150600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Southern and Eastern New York...Eastern and Central Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Delaware...New York City

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 150356Z - 150600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to develop eastward into
southeast New York, eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey over the
next few hours. A tornado and wind damage threat will be likely.
Weather watch issuance will be needed to the east of the current
watches over the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
quickly eastward across the central Appalachians. A well-developed
squall line is located just ahead of the front from western New York
southward into western Pennsylvania. This squall line is moving
eastward at 35 to 40 kt and will move through the remaining part of
WW 69 and 71 over the next few of hours. The line will affect areas
to the east of the watches during the early overnight period.
Further to the east, cells that develop ahead of the line will also
impact areas to the east of the watch. The strong shear environment
evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs will continue a wind damage and
isolated tornado threat along the more intense portions of the line.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 43117642 42477703 41447774 40337801 39007719 38617630
38527569 38557534 38817490 39457438 40187392 40837365
41757331 42597326 43267408 43397568 43117642



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