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ACUS11 KWNS 111954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111954
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-112200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1567
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Areas affected...portions of northern and eastern North Carolina
into parts of central and southern Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 409...

Valid 111954Z - 112200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 409 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for a few tornadoes continues this afternoon north
and east of the center of T.S. Michael.

DISCUSSION...Latest observations/imagery indicates that the
low-level center of T. S. Michael is crossing central North Carolina
at this time, moving in an east-northeasterly direction. Earlier
breaks in the cloud cover over parts of eastern
Virginia/northeastern North Carolina have allowed some
heating/destabilization to occur, though cloud cover has now
overspread the entire region. While the instability field would
suggest that the greatest risk for tornadoes will reside over
southeast Virginia over the next few hours within this more
favorable thermodynamic environment, transient low-level rotation
has been observed with several small updrafts north of Michael's
center -- i.e. a county either side of the Virginia/North Carolina
border, over western portions of the Tornado Watch. Overall, as
Michael continues moving east-northeast, risk for tornadoes -- be it
from individual cells over eastern Virginia/northeast North Carolina
or within the enhanced convective band just north of Michael's
center -- will be maximized over south-central and southeast
Virginia and possibly far northeast North Carolina over the next
several hours.

..Goss.. 10/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 35387705 35967766 36197826 36137911 35967991 36228013
36677986 37217957 37667910 37887836 37987756 38037531
36907590 35827558 35137617 35387705



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