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ACUS11 KWNS 111231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111231
VAZ000-NCZ000-111400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Areas affected...central and southern NC...southeast and
south-central VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 111231Z - 111400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Gradual destabilization this morning will become more
favorable for cellular development and a corresponding increased
risk for tornadoes. A tornado watch will likely be needed in the
next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows the center of tropical cyclone
Michael over central SC as of 825am EDT. A wide shield of heavy
rain encompasses the northern semicircle of the weakening tropical
system but a south-southeast to north-northwest zone of
quasi-discrete convection is located immediately to the northeast of
the rain shield. It is here and to the east and southeast that
destabilization (through advection and weak heating) will promote
increased potential for stronger updrafts and quasi-discrete
supercells later this morning into the afternoon. Forecast
soundings from near Raleigh northeastward into southeast VA show
hodographs enlarging with 0-1 km SRH ranging from 250-350 m2/s2 by
15-18z. Moderate buoyancy (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) is already evident in
the coastal plain (reference the 12z MHX raob) and will spread
inland as temperatures rise into the upper 70s degrees F in the
corridor from the Triangle into southeast VA. Several tornadoes are
possible in the vicinity of this strengthening baroclinic zone to
the northeast of the center of Michael's circulation where the
combination of strongest pressure falls, buoyancy, and shear
overlap.

..Smith/Hart.. 10/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON 36157954 37427854 37657776 37627710 37307641 36887647
36037727 35277751 34577749 34207789 34347847 34977962
35537988 36157954



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