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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1564

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, October 11, 2018 08:34:25
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110834
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110834
    NCZ000-SCZ000-110930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1564
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0334 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

    Areas affected...central and southern NC...eastern into
    central/Upstate of SC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 110834Z - 110930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The possibility for weak/transient supercell structures
    remains across central SC in association with outer convective bands
    of tropical cyclone Michael. There is uncertainty whether an
    additional tornado watch is needed to the northeast of tornado watch
    408.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery as of 0830z shows a supercell over
    central SC with other transient structures over eastern SC. The
    airmass over the Carolina Piedmont is only marginally
    unstable/supportive for the potential for updrafts to acquire
    intermittent rotation. Farther east over the coastal plain, upper
    70s dewpoints are contributing to greater buoyancy (1200 J/kg
    MLCAPE) per the 06z CHS raob. A low but persistent threat will
    likely continue for a few supercell structures and an attendant
    conditional risk for a weak tornado through the overnight and into
    the early morning hours. Aside from the narrow spatiotemporal
    windows of opportunity for short-lived supercells developing and
    acquiring low-level rotation, weak shear zones along convective
    banded structures will very likely not yield a tornado risk.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 10/11/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 32767988 34618178 35088225 35778032 35727839 34407687
    32767988



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