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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0357

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 04, 2018 23:55:10
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042355
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042354
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-050230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0357
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0654 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

    Areas affected...Northern and central NH into western ME

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 042354Z - 050230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out as the
    remnants of a fast-moving line of storms in eastern NY reach central
    and eastern New Hampshire to far western Maine between 9-11 PM EDT.
    A severe-weather watch is not likely.

    DISCUSSION...Trends in surface observations early this evening
    showed a boundary extending north-northwest from southeast NH (just
    south of KPSM) through the eastern NH counties into Quebec. A
    cooler, more stable air mass resides east of this boundary, and has
    been reinforced by showers that have now moved into western parts of
    ME. A fast-moving band of convection, now tracking through eastern
    NY and northern VT at close to 50 kt toward the east-northeast, will
    reach NH by 01Z and into western ME between 0130-0230Z. However,
    the aforementioned stable boundary layer should limit the likelihood
    of a greater coverage of damaging wind gusts reaching the surface.
    Further stabilization/diabatic cooling, given the time of day,
    should also prove to be a negative factor for stronger winds to
    reach the surface. Although a stronger wind gust cannot be ruled
    out, this potential is expected to remain quite low, precluding the
    need for a severe-thunderstorm watch.

    ..Peters/Edwards.. 05/04/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...

    LAT...LON 45427066 44367020 43617032 43037073 43387135 43727207
    44297178 44787150 45227139 45427066



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 15, 2019 02:10:07
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 150209
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150209
    VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-GAZ000-150345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0357
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0909 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

    Areas affected...South Carolina...West-central North
    Carolina...Western Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 150209Z - 150345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue late this evening
    into the early overnight period. Wind damage and an isolated tornado
    threat will likely exist as a line move eastward across the region.
    A tornado watch will be needed soon across the region.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front from
    western Virginia extending south-southwestward into far western
    South Carolina. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is in place with
    the RAP estimating MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In
    addition, the Roanoke, VA WSR-88D VWP shows 55 kt of 0-6 km shear.
    This is representative of the deep-layer shear across most of
    Virginia and the Carolinas suggesting that a severe threat will
    continue. As a linear MCS moves across the region from west to east
    late this evening into the early overnight period, the stronger
    cells embedded in the line should have a potential for wind damage
    and isolated tornado threat.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/15/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 37808010 36718122 35068236 34118270 33588209 33548094
    35457962 36317883 37477814 38087912 37808010



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