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ACUS11 KWNS 042249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042248
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-050045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

Areas affected...Northeast NY and much of VT

Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...

Valid 042248Z - 050045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado potential persists across northeast New York and
central and northern Vermont during the early to mid evening. The
potential for damaging winds will spread across much of WW 76
through mid evening, as a fast-moving line of storms enters the New
York counties of Herkimer and St. Lawrence by 7 PM EDT, and reaches
Vermont by 8-8:30 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Late afternoon/early evening surface analyses indicated
strong pressure falls ongoing across southeast Ontario into far
southern Quebec and northern parts of VT/NH. A deepening area of
low pressure was analyzed in southeast Ontario with a warm front
extending east-northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley to northern
ME. Southerly low-level winds were located across eastern NY into
New England ahead of a fast-moving cold front with convection
producing strong-severe wind gusts. These southerly winds across
the warm sector with some backing being aided by isallobaric effects
with the strong surface pressure falls are enhancing effective SRH
(400-600 m2/s2) across northeast NY into central and northern VT.
Storms within the warm sector environment will have the potential to
produce a tornado, in addition to damaging winds and some hail.

Meanwhile, a threat for damaging winds will spread across WW 76 from
west to east between 23-01Z, as strong deep-layer westerlies (90 kt
at 700 mb and around 100 kt at 500 mb) along and west of the cold
front accompanying the progressive shortwave trough spread across
this region.

..Peters.. 05/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 43027549 44837522 45037285 45027129 44327128 43667182
43257248 42927339 42917410 43027549



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ACUS11 KWNS 150114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150114
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-150215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Central Pennsylvania and far southern New York

Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...

Valid 150114Z - 150215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
continues across tornado watch 69. Trends are being monitored for a
downstream watch issuance into southern New York and northeastern
Pennsylvania.

DISCUSSION...Reflectivity across western Pennsylvania has increased
along the squall line as ascent from the mid-level trough starts to
overspread the region. While the severe weather threat along the
line will remain focused in the northern half of Pennsylvania where
the line is oriented more favorably for stronger updraft growth,
additional storms may develop ahead of the line in the next few
hours which would pose a severe weather threat in both the south and
north portions of the watch. Any storm which form ahead of the line
will likely be low-topped supercellular in nature considering the 60
to 80 knots of deep layer shear (per CCX VWP) and weak buoyancy. Any
pre-squall line supercells will also pose a conditional tornado
threat considering 0-1 km SRH is over 700 m2/s2 per CCX VWP.

..Bentley.. 04/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 39768020 40827970 42067915 42417907 42667873 42737817
42697735 42497660 42087647 41157666 39837728 39647842
39577959 39768020



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