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ACUS11 KWNS 110109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110108
SCZ000-GAZ000-110315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1562
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0808 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Areas affected...northern Florida through central Georgia and
extreme southwest South Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 407...

Valid 110108Z - 110315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 407 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for isolated tornadoes will persist this evening,
primarily over parts of southern through central Georgia with a more
limited threat in north Florida. Overall threat has decreased
compared to earlier today. The threat farther north into SC is not
expected to become sufficient for another watch until possibly later
tonight.

DISCUSSION...As of mid evening the center of Michael was located
over southwest GA and is forecast by the National Hurricane center
to continue a northeast movement tonight, reaching western SC by
early Thursday morning. Convection within Michael's outer bands has
decreased significantly this evening, likely due in part to loss of
daytime heating, with the more active bands within 150 miles east
and northeast of the center. Given the size of the 0-1 km hodographs
along with mid 70s F dewpoints from south central through east
central GA, the threat for isolated tornadoes will persist in this
corridor this evening despite the limited buoyancy. While the threat
for a tornado or two also persists farther south across north FL,
overall threat should gradually decrease with time from the south as
Michael continues northward, resulting in a gradual veering and
weakening of low-level winds over northern FL.

Farther north into SC, low-level shear and size of 0-1 km hodographs
have been increasing with time, but the more robust convection is
not expected to begin affecting this region until later tonight.

..Dial.. 10/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 32368355 33268448 33278171 32608130 31458166 30718311
32368355



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