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ACUS11 KWNS 042142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042141
TXZ000-042315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

Areas affected...south Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 042141Z - 042315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to marginally severe storms will persist the
remainder of the afternoon. A watch is not expected and convection
will weaken into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely-scattered storms were ongoing in a
weakly unstable environment along and ahead of a cold front across
south Texas. Deep-layer shear is adequate for maintaining cellular
convection, but weak low-level flow and lack-luster midlevel lapse
rates coupled with modest instability will limit overall
organization and longevity of any stronger updrafts. Brief instances
of strong to marginally severe storms will persist the remainder of
the afternoon with some strong wind gusts and hail possible, but
overall threat will remain limited and a watch is not expected.
Storms should weaken as evening progresses and boundary-layer
stabilization ensues.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 05/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON 26549925 26889946 27129949 27449952 27889930 28309861
28379807 28249768 27569733 26929731 26239712 25909713
25799736 25979821 26249896 26549925



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ACUS11 KWNS 142342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142342
MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-150045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...far northern Virginia...central Maryland...and far
southeast Pennsylvania

Concerning...Tornado Watch 67...

Valid 142342Z - 150045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 67 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across tornado watch
67.

DISCUSSION...A few low-topped supercells continue to rotate in
central Maryland. These storms will likely be responsible for the
primary severe weather threat in tornado watch 67 for the next hour
or two. Given the low-topped nature of the storms and very little
lightning, the hail threat will continue to be minimal with a
primary threat of damaging winds and an isolated tornado. It is
uncertain how long this threat will continue, as most guidance
suggests this activity will wane within the next hour or two.
However, the environment ahead of these storms is not expected to
change much within the next few hours and it seems possible that the
threat from these initial storms may persist beyond 01Z.

..Bentley.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 38977801 39557745 39997690 39847619 39507615 39047659
38487746 38477791 38607808 38977801



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