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ACUS11 KWNS 102051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102050
NCZ000-SCZ000-102315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Areas affected...Much of South Carolina...far southern North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 102050Z - 102315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Brief tornado may occur with any of the stronger storms.
Isolated nature of the threat precludes a WW issuance at this time.

DISCUSSION...The possibility of a brief tornado may occur within two
meso-beta scale regimes across the discussion area. In the first
regime, a northwest to southeast oriented band of convection,
currently over the NC/SC border, has been sustained for the last few
hours along a confluence zone. Here, a modest east-southeasterly
oriented 850 mb wind maximum (approaching 30 knots) has supported
convection with both a very moist airmass, while contributing to a
modest low-level shear profile, with between 100-150 m2/s2 0-1km and
0-3km SRH noted by RAX VWP. With 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE present across
the area, it is possible that a few storms may acquire brief,
transient rotation.

Farther southwest across central South Carolina, low-level shear is
poorer, with most recent CAE VWP data suggesting 0-1km and 0-3km SRH
well under 100 m2/s2. Still, the airmass across the area is well
heated and very moist, with over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE noted.
Specfically, both RAP PFC guidance and Mesoanalysis suggest 0-3km
MLCAPE values have reached or exceeded 150-200 J/kg within the last
few hours. While low-level flow is comparatively weaker, the higher
low-level MLCAPE values suggest enhanced tilting/stretching
potential of any streamwise or vertically oriented low-level
vorticity associated with any cell that can mature and maintain
longevity.

While the overall tornado threat may increase later this evening,
the shorter term risk is expected to be low, given the lack of
coinciding favorable buoyancy/kinematic fields and organized storms
across the area. As such, a tornado watch issuance is unlikely in
the near term.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 10/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 32408064 33228145 34018219 34748204 34928148 35148085
35168020 34887964 34447903 33977868 33347905 32597985
32408064



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