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ACUS11 KWNS 102033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102032
FLZ000-GAZ000-102230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1560
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Areas affected...Much of GA...Northern FL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 406...407...

Valid 102032Z - 102230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 406, 407 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat will continue into this evening to the
east of the track of Hurricane Michael, with the greatest short-term
threat expected from southeast into central Georgia.

DISCUSSION...The eye of Hurricane Michael has progressed into the
northern FL Panhandle as of 2030Z. A substantial rain shield to the
northeast of the center has limited the potential for
destabilization across southwest GA, but stronger
heating/destabilization (where temperatures have warmed into the 80s
F) has allowed for the development of several small rotating cells
from the northern FL peninsula into southeast/central GA. The
greatest tornado threat for the next few hours will remain from
southeast into central GA, as cells continue to develop within the
axis of stronger instability and then rotate northwestward into a
region of rapidly increasing low-level shear/helicity (0-1 km SRH in
excess of 300 m2/s2).

Tornado Watch 406 is scheduled to expire at 21Z, and threat should
continue shifting away from the remaining portion of this watch into
recently issued Tornado Watch 407, but some local extension of WW
406 may be required across the northern Gulf Coast of Florida if any
cells redevelop across this area in the short term.

..Dean.. 10/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 33328505 34098385 33828256 32068110 31808109 30618149
29168091 28948196 28948273 29368327 29948366 30148416
30938444 33328505



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