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ACUS11 KWNS 101729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101729
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-102030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central and southern GA...north
FL...and southern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 101729Z - 102030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be issued by mid afternoon across
portions of central and southeast Georgia, and perhaps including
parts of north Florida and southern South Carolina. A tornado
threat will spread to the northeast as Hurricane Michael tracks
toward southwest Georgia by early evening, after making landfall
early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery suggest a new outer rain
band may be developing across southeast into south-central GA (from approximately 25 WSW KSSI to 25 WSW KMCN). The combination of high-moisture-content air (surface dew points in the middle 70s) and
surface heating, given the presence of filtered sunshine through
high thin cirrus on the northeast periphery of Michael, is resulting
in moderate instability. Meanwhile, trends in low-level shear per
VAD profile at Valdosta, GA adjusted for storm motions of embedded
cells in the rain bands indicated steady strengthening, with 0-1 km
SRH approaching 300 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear around 40 kt. This
strengthening trend is expected to persist through the afternoon and
evening and expand northward and east some across central and
eastern GA into adjacent southern SC, and perhaps north FL, as
Michael tracks toward southwest GA. This high low-level shear
environment favors an increasing tornado threat and the need for a
tornado watch to the north and northeast of WW 406.

..Peters/Guyer.. 10/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 31888448 31508509 33078472 33558396 33538277 33418140
33398098 32528062 31678085 30768128 30208157 29938224
29858269 30928290 31848305 31888448



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