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ACUS11 KWNS 101207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101206
FLZ000-101300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1557
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Areas affected...FL Big Bend

Concerning...Tornado Watch 406...

Valid 101206Z - 101300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 406 continues.

SUMMARY...The supercell tornado risk is likely beginning to move
onshore and will likely focus near the Apalachee Bay coastal areas
during the 8-10am EDT period.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KTLH shows a cluster of
quasi-discrete supercells over Apalachee Bay moving northwest
towards the Wakulla County coast. It is here that the supercell
tornado risk appears focused during the next few hours as this
convection moves ashore. Inputting the supercell motion (150
degrees at 40 kt) yields 240 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per KTLH VAD data.
Low-level shear will likely increase further and become more
favorable for low-level mesocyclones and an EF0-EF2 tornado risk
this morning with the persistent/more intense mesocyclones.

..Smith.. 10/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON 29798462 30098475 30358450 30118380 29668355 29468367
29798462



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