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ACUS11 KWNS 042021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042020
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-042115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0352
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

Areas affected...Eastern OH...Norther/Western PA...Western NY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75...

Valid 042020Z - 042115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across ww75 as convection
spreads rapidly across the region.

DISCUSSION...Fast-moving mid-level speed max is translating across
LE into western NY. Convection associated with this feature has been
efficient in producing severe wind gusts in excess of 50kt...per
surface observations from southeast MI into ON. Severe winds should
be common with convection as it spreads rapidly east across ww75,
especially across western NY where forcing/thermodynamic profiles
are more favorable.

Downstream, discrete supercells are beginning to develop just east
of LO. These storms should increase in intensity as they encounter
favorably sheared downstream environment. Tornado threat will be
greatest along a corridor from this activity into northern VT.

..Darrow.. 05/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON 41768110 44587525 42117526 39308113 41768110



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ACUS11 KWNS 142312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142312
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-150115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0352
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Georgia...Western South
Carolina...Western and Central North Carolina...Far Eastern Tennessee...Southwestern Virginia...Far Southern West Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 62...66...

Valid 142312Z - 150115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 62, 66
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to continue across parts of
the southern and central Appalachian Mountains. Wind damage and hail
will be the primary threats but a tornado can not be ruled out.
Weather watch issuance will probably be needed across the region at
the expiration of WW 62.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front from
eastern Kentucky extending south-southwestward into north-central
Georgia. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and just ahead of
the front. A moist airmass is present to the east of the front and
the RAP is showing an axis of instability from northeastern Georgia
into western North Carolina, where MLCAPE values are estimated to be
in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, the Knoxville, TN
WSR-88D VWP shows 65 to 70 kt of 0-6 km shear suggesting the
environment will continue to support severe storms early this
evening. Supercells and organized multicells will have potential for
wind damage and isolated large hail. Although the tornado threat
appears to have decreased some across the region, a brief tornado or
two can not be ruled out, especially with cells that rotate.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 36778228 37518171 37768120 37468001 36967931 36457929
35367992 34238117 33738186 33558283 33618327 33858374
34418385 35088344 35678312 36778228



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