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ACUS11 KWNS 232005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232005
MAZ000-RIZ000-232100-
Mesoscale Discussion 1593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Areas affected...far eastern RI into southeast MA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 232005Z - 232100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Showers and storms will continue to show signs of
rotation. However, threat will remain limited and no watch is
expected at this time.
DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have exhibited moderate low to
mid-level rotation recently as they track east-northeast from
eastern RI into southeast MA. Low level shear profiles are being
maximized across this area due to backed flow to the south of a
surface front draped across MA, and BOX VWP data indicates 0-1km SRH
around 140 m2/s2. While shear profiles will continue to support
rotation, very meager instability across the area (less than 250
J/kg per 19Z mesoanalysis) will limit longevity of any increased
rotational signatures. Therefore, overall threat will remain limited
and any increase in low level rotation will be short-lived.
..Leitman/Darrow.. 10/23/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...
LAT...LON 41877151 42217119 42347056 41966991 41686992 41427071
41397140 41627153 41877151
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