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ACUS11 KWNS 041824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041823
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

Areas affected...Western NY...Northwest PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 041823Z - 042000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging winds in excess of 50kt will accompany convection
this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watch will be issued.

DISCUSSION...Plume of steep low-level lapse rates have developed
along a corridor from OH into southern ON. Scattered convection has
developed within this plume along/ahead of a surging front that
currently extends from southern Lake Ontario into northwest OH.
Intense large-scale forcing for ascent will spread along the
international border region which will encourage upward evolving
squall line as it races east. Severe wind gusts in excess of 50kt
have been common with convection across southeastern lower MI into
northwestern OH. 18z sounding from BUF exhibits a strengthening wind
field with 50kt near 900mb. There is increasing confidence that
50kt+ wind gusts will easily mix to the surface given the steep
boundary-layer lapse rates. Latest thinking is widespread wind
damage could accompany squall line as it races east ahead of
ejecting mid-level speed max. Watch will be issued soon to account
for this threat.

..Darrow/Hart.. 05/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40808079 44107772 43987519 41927634 40597816 40808079



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ACUS11 KWNS 142230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142230
WVZ000-VAZ000-150000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...West Virginia and far southwest Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 142230Z - 150000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this evening.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed along a pre-frontal
trough stretching from central Ohio into eastern Kentucky. The
storms in southern Ohio and eastern Kentucky have mostly struggled
up to this point as as surface dewpoints ahead of the storms have
mixed into the low to mid 50s. This well mixed boundary layer will
be supportive of damaging wind gusts from any stronger storms that
can develop, but the very weak instability due to the meager surface
moisture has made storm intensification difficult up to this point.
Very strong height falls are rapidly approaching this area and this
additional synoptic ascent may aid with storm strengthening over the
next few hours. This area will continue to be monitored for a
potential watch. Given the relatively mixed boundary layer in this
area and relatively veered surface flow compared to farther north,
the predominant severe threat should be damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...

LAT...LON 38188152 39188128 39618073 39507994 39137949 38717956
37528001 37028041 36728104 36658149 36828185 37338203
38188152



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