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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1592

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, October 23, 2018 18:06:09
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231806
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231805
    NMZ000-AZZ000-232000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1592
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0105 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

    Areas affected...portions of center into southeast AZ and extreme
    southwest NM

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 231805Z - 232000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong storms may produce hail and gusty winds
    across parts of central into southeast AZ and perhaps extreme
    southwest NM. Overall threat will remain limited and a watch is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated convection will continue to become
    increasingly surface based this afternoon as a modestly moist
    airmass continues to destabilize. Cloud cover across parts of the
    area has limited instability with north and eastward extent.
    However, RAP forecast soundings still indicate steep midlevel lapse
    rates with adequate deep layer shear profiles to support some threat
    for hail. Where clearing has been more prevalent, greater
    instability may help to overcome rather poor 0-3km shear profile. As
    such, stronger cells may produce hail and gusty winds. Overall
    threat will remain marginal as deep layer shear lessens with time
    across the region, leading to largely disorganized convection and/or
    brief stronger updrafts.

    ..Leitman/Darrow.. 10/23/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 31301103 31531173 33401209 34071242 34471234 34741187
    34801121 34631049 34271006 32960919 32420870 31910828
    31320812 31320848 31300888 31320929 31301103



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