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ACUS11 KWNS 222038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222037
AZZ000-222230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1591
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Areas affected...northeast Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 222037Z - 222230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may become capable of producing hail and
gusty winds this afternoon into early evening. Threat is expected to
remain too marginal for a WW.

DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon storms are developing over a
portion of the Rim of north central AZ fostered by deeper forcing
for ascent accompanying a northeast-advancing shortwave trough.
Diabatic heating is destabilizing the boundary layer, but limited
low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 40s F is resulting in
MLCAPE near or below 500 J/kg. A corridor of modest winds aloft
within base of the upper trough is spreading through this region
with 30-35 kt effective bulk shear supportive of both multicells and
some marginal supercell structures. This environment will promote
some potential for a few instances of hail and gusty winds through
early evening, but overall threat should remain limited due
primarily to the marginal thermodynamic environment.

..Dial.. 10/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...

LAT...LON 34521071 35081151 36001170 36851013 36750951 36120928
35200987 34521071



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