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ACUS11 KWNS 041705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041704
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-041830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

Areas affected...Northern OH...Northwest PA...Western NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 041704Z - 041830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to increase across the lower
Great Lakes region over the next few hours. Damaging winds are the
primary risk from northern OH into western NY.

DISCUSSION...Strengthening mid-level speed max will translate across
the lower Great Lakes region into upstate NY by early evening. This
feature will encourage a well-defined surface low to track across
southern ON to near the QC border by 05/00z. Resultant southwesterly
flow ahead of the front has contributed to substantial
boundary-layer warming and destabilization. Latest OA fields suggest surface-3km lapse rates have steepened in excess of 8 C/km across
much of OH and convective temperatures appear to have been breached
across the region. Satellite/radar data confirm this with frontal
convection deepening across southeast MI into northeast IN. This
activity is evolving along the southern fringe of stronger forcing
and is expected to gradually mature into a squall line as it races
east across the lower Great Lakes region. There is increasing
confidence in a damaging wind scenario unfolding with this
convection. For these reasons a severe thunderstorm watch may be
required to address this threat.

..Darrow/Hart.. 05/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40778327 43077980 43287740 41757841 40408100 40778327



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ACUS11 KWNS 142149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142149
VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Virginia...Eastern West Virginia...Southwestern
Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon

Valid 142149Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to increase across parts of
central and northern Virginia over the next hour. Weather watch
issuance will likely be needed soon across the region.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar analysis shows a small cluster of
strong to severe thunderstorms in western Virginia. This cluster
will continue to move northeastward into central Virginia where
strong deep-layer shear and instability will be sufficient for a
severe threat. Wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat will
exist with this activity.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 36747819 37247860 37787938 38257957 38957915 39127822
39017756 38527675 37777659 36887710 36747819



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