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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1539

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, October 07, 2018 23:00:08
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 072300
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072259
    TXZ000-NMZ000-080030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1539
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0559 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of the southern high Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398...

    Valid 072259Z - 080030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Potential for severe thunderstorms should gradually shift
    towards western portions of Watch 398 this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of multicells and transient supercells has
    persisted across the Texas Panhandle early this evening. Backed
    surface flow along a warm front and moist low levels near/south of
    the boundary may continue to aid a threat of damaging gusts and a
    brief tornado in the very near term. However, cell interference and
    related messy mode evolution should slowly limit the severe threat.

    Farther west, increasing large-scale ascent on the eastern periphery
    of the primary trough is supporting strong/severe thunderstorm
    development over southern/central New Mexico. By late evening,
    storms should further increase in coverage across western portions
    of the watch. Relatively uni-directional, meridional flow above
    700mb may favor upscale growth into one or more eastward-propagating
    lines, with a primary threat of damaging winds. However, any
    embedded supercell may be capable of large hail and perhaps a
    tornado or two, given breezy southeast surface winds and dew points
    in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

    ..Picca.. 10/07/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 33460269 32070457 31940593 32090672 32490696 33630618
    34460577 35480478 35770432 35950367 35970289 35520225
    35260192 35000189 34520215 33460269



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