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ACUS11 KWNS 072048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072047
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-072315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Areas affected...southeast half of Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 072047Z - 072315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop through the afternoon and evening. A brief tornado,
marginally severe hail, or strong gust winds may be possible with
some of the storms.

DISCUSSION...Backed low-level flow across much of the region has
lifted a warm front northwestward to around the I44 corridor. Along
and south of the warm front, an increasingly unstable and weakly
airmass is in place. Persistent warm-air advection/isentropic ascent
has resulted in enough ascent for isolated thunderstorms to develop
within the warm sector across south-central and southeast Oklahoma.
Farther west, across western Oklahoma, the warm-air advection has
resulted in a persistent precipitation shield that has retarded the
northward advancement of the warm front.

Given the backed near-surface flow, there is sufficient low-level
veering of the wind field to support a brief/transient low-level
rotation within any thunderstorm and possibly a brief tornado. The
more likely area for a brief tornado will exist as any thunderstorm
interacts with the warm front, where enough ambient low-level
vorticity may exist to augment low-level rotation. Additionally,
brief, strong gusty winds will be possible with the strongest
thunderstorm cores.

At this time, the lack of long-lived thunderstorm organization
should result in the threat from any one thunderstorm to be too
brief/isolated to warrant a watch.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 10/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON 34420000 35899786 36959586 36739471 35909434 33889469
33619635 33659986 34420000



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