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ACUS11 KWNS 071907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071907
TXZ000-NMZ000-072100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and far western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 071907Z - 072100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon across
portions of eastern New Mexico. These thunderstorms will be capable
of producing large hail, gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. With
time these thunderstorms will move east into Texas. A watch will
likely be needed sometime this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A seasonably strong midlevel trough continues to dig east-southeast this afternoon in the vicinity of the Four Corners.
As height falls continue to spread east, the polar jet is
strengthening across the southern Rocky Mountains. With time, these
height falls and strengthening jet will overspread the southern High
Plains. At the same time, backing low-level flow will continue to
advect a moist airmass into the plains of eastern New Mexico. This
airmass, already in place across southeast New Mexico, is
characterized by surface dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60s. As surface temperatures continue to warm, most-unstable CAPE will increase to
over 2000 J/kg (and locally over 3000 J/kg) with mixed-layer CAPE a
little less owing to mixing/drying in the boundary layer.

As deep-layer ascent from the southwest trough impinges on this
unstable and weakly capped environment, thunderstorms should
initiate in the next few hours. To this end, recent satellite
imagery shows a marked increase in cumulus clouds, with increasing
vertical development across Eddy and Chaves counties of southeast
New Mexico and Gaines county of Texas. Furthermore, thunderstorms
are developing along/near the old outflow boundary across
east-central New Mexico and far west Texas. The ongoing
thunderstorms along with subsequent thunderstorms will pose a
large-hail threat as strong instability coincides with cooling
temperatures aloft. The threat for tornadoes will increase late this
afternoon into evening as the low-level jet strengthens and backs,
also in response to the approaching trough. The trade off to the
increasing low-level flow will be continued backing of the flow
aloft, which should promote upscale growth and potentially
destructive storm interactions. With time, these thunderstorms
should transition from more cellular to more bowing lines, with an
attendant increase in wind potential. Given the strength of the wind
field, a severe threat should continue over dark.

Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon and a
watch will likely be needed sometime this afternoon.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 10/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 31670474 34810472 35220261 31970274 31670474



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