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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1535

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, October 07, 2018 17:29:07
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 071729
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071728
    ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-072000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1535
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1228 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...far west Arkansas...far
    southwest Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 071728Z - 072000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few stronger storms with occasional strong low-level
    rotation are possible this afternoon. A WW issuance is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A band of discrete storms has intensified along the
    western periphery of a destabilizing, moist air mass, where
    temperatures have warmed over 80F, with dewpoints climbing into the
    70s. While deep-layer flow is rather weak, with shear being mainly unidirectional throughout the troposphere, some strengthening/slight
    veering of the winds has been noted within the sfc-925 mb layer.
    Across parts of the discussion area, sfc-3km MLCAPE has increased up
    to 150 J/kg, suggesting that some tilting/stretching of streamwise
    vorticity associated with the sfc-925 mb shear will be possible,
    resulting in the more intense discrete storms demonstrating at least
    brief periods of transient low-level rotation. Still, with effective
    SRH likely remaining below 150 m2/s2 across the area, weaker flow
    aloft, and deep-layer ascent remaining limited in the short term, a
    more widespread severe threat is not anticipated. As such, the
    issuance of a WW is not expected at this time.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 10/07/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 35069404 34779477 35009570 35509536 36689498 37109488
    37369476 37479437 37289409 36719395 36179392 35069404



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