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ACUS11 KWNS 041252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041252
TXZ000-041445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0348
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Fri May 04 2018

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 041252Z - 041445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will move off the plateau and also develop
southward across the Rio Grande Valley later today, with a threat of
mainly damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...The 12Z Del Rio sounding shows an eroded capping
inversion near the outflow boundary, with storms persisting
southeastward across the Hill Country. These storms appear to be
gaining organization as they forward propagate toward San Antonio.
Additional development is expected westward along the outflow toward
the Rio Grande. If this trend persists and storms do not weaken, a
watch may eventually be needed.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 05/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29120069 29509984 29919922 30269897 30599875 30579815
30219750 29629713 28949693 28379715 27909758 27719874
27719949 27869999 28570049 29120069



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ACUS11 KWNS 142143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142143
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-142345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0348
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...South Carolina...Southern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 142143Z - 142345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop across the eastern
half of South Carolina and southern North Carolina over the next few
hours. Wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be
possible with the stronger storms. Weather watch issuance will
likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front across
northern Georgia extending south-southwestward into far eastern
Alabama. A moist airmass is present ahead of the front extending
eastward to the Atlantic coast where surface dewpoints generally
range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. In response, the moist
airmass has become moderately unstable with the RAP showing MLCAPE
values in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, the Wilmington
and Charleston WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km of 55 to 65 kt with 0-3 km
storm relative helicities of 250 to 350 m2/s2. This shear
environment should be favorable for supercells with tornado
potential and organized multicells with wind damage potential.

The severe threat should increase across southeastern South Carolina
over the next hour as severe storms move northeastward out of WW 64.
Severe storms could also develop further to the north across parts
of northeastward South Carolina and southern North Carolina.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 32158048 32757967 33437882 34067793 35347769 35657852
35577948 35168006 33938083 32898136 32188143 32078093
32158048



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