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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1532

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, October 06, 2018 21:35:33
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 062135
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062135
    OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-062300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1532
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0435 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast IN...southeast MI and northwest OH

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...

    Valid 062135Z - 062300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe storms will continue across the
    watch area. A marginal, brief threat may extend into parts of far
    northwest OH and extreme southeast MI before convection weakens with
    loss of daytime heating. A downstream watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Strong to severe storms will be possible for at least a
    couple of more hours across WW 396 in northeastern IN. The threat
    may creep into adjacent portions of far northwest OH and extreme
    southeast MI, but any threat across these areas should remain
    limited in time and space. While storms continue to traverse a moist
    and unstable airmass, low to midlevel shear profile continues to
    limit severity by means of the undercutting surface cold front. A
    narrow axis of increased SBCAPE and effective shear exits across far
    northeast IN into far northwest OH and storms may try to intensify
    in the short term across this area, but overall expectation is that
    convection will largely remain sub-severe and a downstream watch is
    not anticipated.

    ..Leitman.. 10/06/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

    LAT...LON 42108391 42198342 42208312 41908314 41088368 40598493
    40178657 40458669 41348576 41798516 42108391



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