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ACUS11 KWNS 040914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040913
TXZ000-041045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0347
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 AM CDT Fri May 04 2018

Areas affected...Middle Rio Grande Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73...

Valid 040913Z - 041045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail remains possible mainly across Val
Verde, Edwards, and perhaps Kinney counties through watch
expiration.

DISCUSSION...Earlier storms have devolved into a dying MCV moving
from the Hill Country into central TX, with outflow helping to focus
further development to the northwest. While most of this activity is
just heavy rain, storms farther southwest near the Rio Grande will
have the best chance of producing severe hail as a southeasterly
low-level jet aid in air mass recovery. Other severe storms are
possible farther south down the Rio Grande Valley, but well after
watch expiration at 10Z.

..Jewell.. 05/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29740181 30700074 30710037 30100020 29660003 29120000
28780017 28760064 29010065 29320122 29740181



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ACUS11 KWNS 142050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142050
VAZ000-NCZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0347
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Areas near/east of the Blue Ridge of North Carolina
into Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...

Valid 142050Z - 142215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for supercells potentially capable of producing
tornadoes continues, and could increase at least a bit further
through 6-7 PM EDT. Trends will also continue to be monitored for
northward development toward the northern Virginia vicinity, which
may require an additional severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...A zone of enhanced near/surface warm advection and
convergence to the lee of the Blue Ridge mountains may remain a
focus for discrete thunderstorm development across North Carolina
into Virginia through the 22-23Z time frame. Aided by peak boundary
layer instability associated with daytime heating (including CAPE up
to 1000 J/kg), a few supercells are possible, in the presence of
strong low-level and deep layer vertical shear. The Rapid refresh
suggests that southwesterly 850 mb flow may continue to strengthen
in excess of 50 kt, contributing to further enlargement of low-level
hodographs and perhaps increasing tornadic potential.

..Kerr.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 36248135 36838019 39017734 37257808 35518037 35508160
36248135



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