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ACUS11 KWNS 061740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061739
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-061945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1530
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

Areas affected...eastern Missouri...central Illinois...and
northern/central Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061739Z - 061945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An increasingly unstable and weakly capped environment
will favor thunderstorms this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorms
should slowly intensify through the afternoon as they move
east-northeast. Strong/gusty winds appear to be the primary hazard.

DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms continue along and north of a southeastward moving cold front. Additional thunderstorms have
developed and will continue to develop to the east of the cold front
(across east-central Illinois and northern Indiana) along a weak,
pre-frontal trough.

Ahead of the surface cold front, broken cloud cover will allow for
temperatures to warm into the mid-80s amidst surface dewpoints in
the upper-60s to low-70s. The result will be an increasingly
unstable and weakly capped environment. As the cold front moves into
the area, convergence along the front should allow for continued
thunderstorm development. Although low-level flow is weak, strong mid-upper-level flow should be sufficient to maintain continued
thunderstorm development with the surface front convergence.

Despite a cold front moving into an increasingly unstable and weakly
capped environment, there are several limiting factors to a more
robust severe threat. Seasonably warm mid-level temperatures have
resulted in weak mid-level lapse rates, which, in turn, will limit
the overall hail threat. Additionally, deep-layer flow is mostly
parallel to slightly front-to-back across the frontal boundary. This
will promote thunderstorms developing along the front being quickly
undercut by the advancing cold front. This should keep thunderstorms
elevated for most of their lifetime. However, given the strength of
the deep-layer flow, an isolated strong/gusty wind report or two may
remain possible, especially with convection along/near the front.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 10/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37549181 38229159 38979021 40298816 41588585 40648534
38988729 37538982 37549181



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