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ACUS11 KWNS 052051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052051
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-052315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Fri Oct 05 2018

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 052051Z - 052315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected to
gradually increase in coverage through the rest of the afternoon.
Gusty winds and large hail will be the main threats. Convective
trends are being monitored for a potential WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...A cumulus field has recently developed ahead of a lee trough/dryline, in a moist, moderately unstable environment (with
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE noted across the discussion area). Convective
initiation has recently taken place across Bailey County, TX, and
more storms are expected to develop with continued strong surface
heating and approaching deep-layer ascent associated with a
shortwave trough approaching from the west. Deep-layer shear is
expected to strengthen later this afternoon/evening, and at least
some storm organization is expected. At least marginally severe hail
may occur with the stronger cells given forecast 6.5-7.0 C/km
mid-level lapse rates. Damaging wind gust will also be possible,
particularly with wet downbursts in the cores of the stronger
storms, and where cold pools may congeal, leading to upscale
convective growth.

Still, the lower magnitudes of forecast deep-layer shear (around
20-30 knots in the sfc-6 km layer) suggest that severe coverage will
be modest in nature. Convective trends are being monitored for a
potential WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 10/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33390275 33850329 34950278 35930189 36540090 37080011
37000001 35690009 35000016 33690129 33200244 33390275



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