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ACUS11 KWNS 052012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052012
TXZ000-NMZ000-052245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Fri Oct 05 2018

Areas affected...Far southeast New Mexico...southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052012Z - 052245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong storm coverage is expected to gradually
increase through peak heating of the afternoon. Marginally severe
hail/wind will be the predominant threats. A WW issuance is unlikely
given the sparse and marginal nature of the severe coverage.

DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has been slowly increasing over the
Davis Mountains, with lightning noted with some of the stronger
cells within the past hour. Temperatures have reached or exceeded
90F across much of the discussion area, with modest low-level
moisture and mid-level lapse rates (around 6.5 C/km) in place,
supporting a marginally buoyant airmass with up to 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE noted. Deep-layer and low-level shear are both quite poor
across the area, suggesting that mainly single cells and perhaps
multicellular clusters will be the predominant storm mode.
Evaporative cooling within a dry sub-cloud layer extending up to 700
mb may promote damaging wind gusts in association with the stronger
storms. A few marginally severe hailstones may also occur during the
peak stages of the most intense cells.

While deep layer ascent (associated with a mid-level shortwave
trough to the west) will glance the area later in the afternoon and
encourage greater storm coverage, more widespread coverage of severe
is expected to remain limited given the marginal buoyancy and poor
kinematics. Given the isolated nature of the severe, a WW issuance
is not expected at this time.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 10/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 30610467 31850434 32810384 33180341 33140267 32990190
32960168 31500239 30500298 29980399 30610467



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